Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“Guidelines is the best we can do in the world where nothing is certain or exactly repeatable”, this quote from the end of the book describes exactly what you will get after reading this book. 
You won't be given a “master key to know and forecast every event and outcome”, but what you will get is a comprehensive analysis of the tools used by the forecasters. The book is a good read for a general audience, however if you are unfamiliar with concepts and events used and referenced throughout it, you may have a more challenging reading experience. 

It was ok. It had some interesting tidbits about forecasting (and uncertainty, and probabilities) but I got bored towards the last quarter and ended up skimming the rest.

It was ok. It had some interesting tidbits about forecasting (and uncertainty, and probabilities) but I got bored towards the last quarter and ended up skimming the rest.

Excellent introduction to the field of forecasting, and what it takes to be a good forecaster. Tetlock is balanced on the strengths and weaknesses of his forecasting paradigm.

I don't see what the big hype about this book is. The author recycles the same story - to be a good forecaster, you have to rely on data, not intuition - over and over again.

The book provides great framework for thinking like an above average forecaster. Focus is on probabilistic prediction on geopolitical events and how a keen mind of an ordinary person may beat the forecast of well trained intelligence analysts. An outstanding part of the book are the examples provided to solidify what makes a good superforecaster.

It is worth noting that the Good Judgement project on which this book is predicated upon got the Trump election wrong. The superforecasters gave Hillary Clinton a 97% probability of winning the presidency. In addition, the forecasters gave a 70% probability that the winner of the electoral vote will also win the popular vote.

The book covers a great deal on why some forecasts go wrong and how to avoid these pitfalls that may skew a superforecaster predictions. My greatest takeaway from the book is the ‘Brier Score', a means of evaluating how consistently a forecaster is good.

Kdysi jsem měl problém s knihou Myšlení, rychlé a pomalé a doufal jsem, že tato kniha mě nadchne víc. Jenže bohužel asi nejsem na tento typ knih stavěnej. Ani nevím, komu bych tu knihu mohl doporučit. Možná těm, kteří sázejí v různých sázkařských společnostech, jenž nabízí možnost si vsadit i na určité společenské situace a ne jen sportovní utkání. Při čtení jsem si totiž vzpomněl na muže, který si vsadil na vítězství Trumpa a nakonec vyhrál 1,445 milionu.

Superforcasters opens by comparing the state of forecasting in our current society to that of medicine in the premodern world. Practitioners of forecasting today are not judged on their performance or accuracy, but on the strength of the hindsight aided narrative they can put together. Telling a compelling story that plausibly explains how your specific prediction may have been wrong but your narrative is still generally correct is what kept medicine examining humors and bloodletting for centuries. The message is clear: Look for your failures. Seek out ways to improve your performance. Get prompt feedback. Don't ever get complacent. The state of “perpetual beta” is key, according to the authors, to achieving maximum performance in any field. A notion that we apply to the training of doctors and professional athletes, but not the people whose prognostications drive the behavior of everyone from corporate giants to you and me. We should test those who claim to have insight into complex systems, and look at a forecaster's past record before blindly accepting their story

I'm kind of interested in estimation and forecasting. This book focuses on how people make broad guesses based on information - with a focus on improving and refining forecasts as new information comes in. This book focuses on the traits that make great forecasters. The top most is an open, growth mindset - being open to change and looking towards what's next. The other major focus is adapting when new data comes in. These traits and more are explored through a number of forecasters – some professional and some amateur.

I'm kind of interested in estimation and forecasting. This book focuses on how people make broad guesses based on information - with a focus on improving and refining forecasts as new information comes in. This book focuses on the traits that make great forecasters. The top most is an open, growth mindset - being open to change and looking towards what's next. The other major focus is adapting when new data comes in. These traits and more are explored through a number of forecasters – some professional and some amateur.