Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

The book provides great framework for thinking like an above average forecaster. Focus is on probabilistic prediction on geopolitical events and how a keen mind of an ordinary person may beat the forecast of well trained intelligence analysts. An outstanding part of the book are the examples provided to solidify what makes a good superforecaster.

It is worth noting that the Good Judgement project on which this book is predicated upon got the Trump election wrong. The superforecasters gave Hillary Clinton a 97% probability of winning the presidency. In addition, the forecasters gave a 70% probability that the winner of the electoral vote will also win the popular vote.

The book covers a great deal on why some forecasts go wrong and how to avoid these pitfalls that may skew a superforecaster predictions. My greatest takeaway from the book is the ‘Brier Score', a means of evaluating how consistently a forecaster is good.