The Fourth Turning

I remember being really impressed by this in 1998 when I originally read it but, in retrospect, it seems very pseudo-scientific. Might be worth a reread to see how it holds up.

Strong men make good times.
Good times make weak men.
Weak men make hard times.
Hard times make strong men.

Most of us have heard this saying at some point. But have you thought of the implications of this? Is there reason to believe this is even true?

The authors have taken the time to look into this and recognize there is a recurrent pattern through the history of Anglo-American civilization. Generations have characteristics based on where they are in the cycle (which turning). Cycles come in roughly 80 to 100-year periods (called saeculum). Our saeculum started with WW2.

This book was written in 1997 and is remarkably prescient and accurate on timing. As I've read through it, I've been amazed at the things they point out and predicted. It somewhat reminds me of Asimov's concept of psychohistory from the Foundation books. It's hard to predict what specifically will happen, but they do predict that something significant will happen in the early 2000's to end the 3rd turning and send us into the 4th turning and that in 2020-2025 there will be a major crisis.

We're right on time, folks. One of the most interesting sections of the book was the end where they talk about what actions we should consider taking these things into account. Sadly, it appears our world's leadership haven't read the book as they're not doing ANY of the things mentioned. Sadly, on a more local and individual level people aren't either. At least that can be attributed to ignorance. Now that you've read this review, don't let yourself fall into that category. I wish I had read this 10-15 years ago.

Save yourself some time and just watch the recap of this dull book.

We Are In A “FOURTH TURNING,” What Does That Mean?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeVyfiP0cLk&list=LL&index=2&t=5s

The Fourth Turning: Why American ‘Crisis' May Last Until 2030
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Yfb2zQjKWE&list=LL&index=1

Predicting the future has historically been a somewhat sketchy, if not occasionally lucrative, occupation. How are Strauss and Howe doing, casting their lots with Ray Kurzweil, Arthur C. Clarke, John the Revelator and Nostradamus? Commendably I'd say. The book was written in 1997 and here, 13 years later, it feels like they were fairly accurate with their cyclical approach to history and its implications for now and the near future.

The third turning, the one we're in now, and which is about to end, is “a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the old civic order decays and the new values regime implants.”

A fourth turning is “a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.” If they've demarcated the cycles of history correctly, we're supposed to be entering a fourth turning now. It could entail war, major social, economic and political changes or worse. Whatever it is, it will happen quickly and affect almost every aspect of life.

According to Strauss and Howe, there's nothing we can do to stop it. It's a historical cycle, written in stone and it's coming regardless of our attempts to stop it. The best we can do is prepare. They suggest strengthening reputations, families and preparing yourself financially. If we're ready for it, a fourth turning can lead to positive change once it's over. If not, it can lead to a complete collapse.

We'll see how it plays out. If they're right, all that will be starting any day now.