Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

This was a fascinating look at “superforecasters” - basically people who are the best at predicting the (near) future. They're not always the people you think though - none of the guys who make their living doing forecasts for the news wanted to be tested so who knows how well they're doing! But a lot of the superforecasters described in this book are regular joes who do this for fun on the side. There's a lot of good advice in here on how you too can become a superforecaster - it's a learnable skill, if you're willing to put in the time and effort to practice. Some of the lessons are good to know for everyday rational thinking as well, and reading this book has made me want to try and put some of these suggestions into practice for myself.