Fooled by Randomness

The book is a warning on ascribing success to a method yet it could be a result coincidence - even if the “success” runs for several years.

Randomness creates opportunities for coincidence (spurious correlation), and thus accidental millionaires. Can repetition vindicate the successful ones? The book argues no, without further information about the sample size from whence the successful person emanates, it is impossible to ascribe success to a method.

A successful person from a large initial sample size has a higher chance of being successful as a result of chance. Smaller initial sample size indicates method. A befitting summary of the book is found in the phrase “it is better to be lucky than competent”.