Blowing Up

read at: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2002/04/22/blowing-up

“he could not escape the thought that it might all have been the result of sheer, dumb luck... Warren Buffett was known as the “sage of Omaha” because it seemed incontrovertible that if you started with nothing and ended up with billions then you had to be smarter than everyone else: Buffett was successful for a reason. Yet how could you know, Taleb wondered, whether that reason was responsible for someone's success, or simply a rationalization invented after the fact?”